Over the year to June 2022, we found that median market offer prices in the Jemena network (home to about 96% of NSW small gas customers) increased by around 6% for residential customers and decreased by around 2% for small business customers. However, prices increased significantly in early 2022-23. From June to August 2022, the median market offer in the Jemena network increased by around 15% for residential customers and around 26% for small business customers.

This increase volatility in the gas market is linked to the war in Ukraine which has increased international gas prices by creating a gas shortage. This has forced the domestic price upwards as domestic gas consumers compete with export volumes. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) Gas inquiry July 2022 interim report predicts a significant risk of a gas shortfall in 2023 of about 56 PJ, which is approximately 10% of domestic consumption in eastern states.

The Commonwealth Government is also currently reviewing its mechanisms for ensuring adequate domestic supply, including triggering the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) for 2023.